Iran After President Raisi: Does Stability in Politics Mean Continuity of Policies?

In a note published in India’s ThePrint on May 22, Shayan Afrasiabi, GPTT senior researcher discussed the future of Iran after President Raisi’s loss. According to him, the secret behind the stability and durability of the Islamic Republic of Iran, despite the repeated predictions about its collapse during every crisis, can be seen in the “national consensus” on the institutions established by the Constitution, and this is also the case regarding the recent incident of the president’s loss. It is still too early to speculate about the potential candidates for the upcoming presidential elections, but given the increasing popularity of the late president, it is expected that the new president will declare himself or herself as his follower, at least rhetorically. Modesty, hard work, morality, and avoiding partisan fights were among the salient features of President Raisi, which will probably be sought by Iranians in the upcoming election. On the other hand, the loss of Iranian FM, Dr. Amir-Abdollahian may be irreparable considering his role in regional dialogues, but in any case, Iran’s consistent policy of supporting the Palestinian cause will not change. However, naturally, some people inside and outside of Iran do not feel sorry for the president’s death, and some are using this “tragic situation” to pursue their political goals. Israel and the terrorist organization Mojahedin-e Khalgh (MEK) are among them. However, some of the opponents of the late president have correctly understood that this is a national and apolitical situation, and among them, some reformist leaders even issued condolence messages.

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