Ali Salehian, a senior researcher at the Sharif Governance and Policy Think Tank’s International Group, explores the high-risk geopolitical strategies of Israel following the significant impact of the events on October 7th. With its existence now perceived as threatened, Israel has shown an increased willingness to engage in risky actions, such as the recent attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus.

Salehian argues that two key factors could potentially increase rational decision-making or reduce Israel’s willingness to take such high risks: the influence of the United States and the deep state or establishment within Israel. These elements could serve to moderate the more extreme actions of Israel’s right-wing leadership by enhancing rationality or reducing caution in risk acceptance, particularly among Israel’s influential extremists. Iran’s Operation True Promise in mid-April, has somewhat constrained Israel’s risk-taking behavior.

Israel is engaging in a risky gamble, believing that escalating tensions in West Asia will yield favorable outcomes. However, the Resistance Axis, which includes Iran and its allies, is also prepared to take on substantial risks. They have concluded that true peace can only be achieved through a strong and precise response to Israeli provocations.

In this analysis, Salehian delves into why Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu considered assassinating Hamas’s political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran and examines the current situation and the potential responses from Iran and the Resistance Axis. In his opinion, the assassination of Haniyeh, is primarily a tactical move rather than a strategic significant change in the region. However, targeting him in Tehran, during a pause in ceasefire discussions, and following the inauguration of Iran’s new president could have profound strategic implications.

Salehian believes that Iran and the Resistance Axis are likely to up the cost for Israel. This suggests a shift to a higher level of organized military activity, which could significantly impact Israel’s willingness to engage and escalate the costs for the opposing side. This readiness for a regional war would involve coordinated actions across multiple fronts, potentially resulting in targeted strikes and significant casualties.