The Sharif Governance and Policy Think Tank (GPTT) released a detailed analysis addressing the recent actions of Israel and the appropriate response to them. The analysis highlighted that failure to restore deterrence against Israel could heighten the costs and possibly the intensity of the ongoing “calibrated war” across the broader Resistance Axis.

The think tank’s report, as cited by Mehr News Agency, provides a strategic overview of developments in West Asia following Operation Al-Aqsa Storm, suggesting that these events mark a turning point in the region’s geopolitical landscape. Several key moments, such as the attack on Iran’s embassy, the martyrdom of Commander Zadeh, and the assassination of prominent resistance figures, including Ismail Haniyeh and Foad Shaker, have contributed to this shift. However, it points to the assassination of Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah as a critical juncture that has significantly altered the dynamics between the Resistance Axis and Israel.

Before this latest escalation, the conflict between Israel and the Resistance Axis was described as a “controlled war,” akin to a more intense version of the Cold War between the U.S. and the Soviet Union. Though it was not an all-out military conflict, the situation was more severe than mere non-confrontation. Israel, benefiting from extensive Western support and highly skilled personnel, had maintained an advantage, particularly in security and military matters. Its ability to track and target key resistance figures underscored its capabilities in classic military terms.

The report argues that Israel now perceives itself as being in a state of full-scale war after identifying the existential threat posed by the Resistance Axis in the wake of the October 7 events. However, due to the high costs and risks involved in an all-out war, and the lack of unequivocal U.S. backing during an election year, Israel’s approach has so far been limited to a “calibrated war.” This has involved targeted security operations, assassinations, sabotage, and attacks on supply lines supporting the Resistance, such as strikes on Syrian facilities.

Despite these efforts, the think tank points out that Israel’s capacity for such strikes and operations has always existed. The key deterrent preventing more aggressive Israeli action has been the costs associated with these decisions. Deterrence, when active, plays a crucial role in influencing Israeli decision-makers, particularly in avoiding high-risk operations.

In light of the recent escalations, the think tank argues that the resistance movement, especially Iran, must recognize that they are now beyond a non-confrontational stage with Israel. It warns that the controlled war scenario has been disrupted, particularly following the assassination of Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah, pushing the situation towards a full-scale war with Lebanon. In this context, unified support from all elements of the Resistance is deemed vital. The report calls for comprehensive military and civilian support for Lebanon to counter Israel’s aggressive tactics.