In a recently revisited report, Majid Afshani, Head of the International Department at the GPTT, offers insight into the potential global ramifications of a Trump re-election. The report, initially launched under the supervision of Dr. Shayan Afrasiabi, reflects on discussions among international experts and anticipates key strategic shifts if Trump reclaims the presidency.

Last fall, as many experts deemed discussions of a Trump resurgence premature, researchers at the GPTT were already assessing the possible impacts of a second Trump presidency. Conducted as part of an elite diplomacy initiative, these studies indicated that China, among other nations, had already begun bracing for Trump’s potential return. International analysts even speculated on scenarios as extreme as an assassination attempt and the emergence of Ohio Senator J.D. Vance as vice president.

According to Afshani, think tanks play an essential role in shaping a country’s strategic decisions, underscoring the timely relevance of these discussions. The project, initiated by Dr. Shayan Afrasiabi a year ago, concluded this spring with a comprehensive report in collaboration with the Center for Strategic Studies. The report offers recommendations for relevant stakeholders, delivers a detailed meta-analysis of Trump’s financial backers, and explores his likely impact on U.S. relations with Europe, Russia, China, India, West Asia, international institutions, and the “maximum pressure” policy on Iran.

Key excerpts from the report reveal:

• A Bureaucratic Overhaul: Trump is expected to purge dissenting officials from the U.S. bureaucracy, maintaining little tolerance for critics.
• Impulsive Leadership: Political psychology analyses portray Trump’s decision-making as highly impulsive, with strategic stability but frequent tactical shifts.
• Advantage to the Kremlin: A Trump victory would likely benefit Russia while pushing European nations toward greater strategic autonomy.
• Intensified Trade Pressure on China: Trump is expected to tighten economic pressure on Beijing but reduce non-economic confrontations, while India would welcome the continued trade tensions.
• Challenges for the Global South: Trump’s persistent blows to the liberal order may eventually serve the interests of the Global South, though short-term effects may demand heightened caution and strategic adjustments.
• Support for Israel: While U.S. support for Israel would remain steadfast, the form of that support would likely shift under Trump’s administration.

Sharif Governance and Policy Think Tank’s early analysis underscores a dynamic where preparation is essential, even for the unpredictable.