The recent decision to expand BRICS, adopted at the Johannesburg Summit in 2023, has sparked widespread debate about the future of global power dynamics. The following paper was presented by Dr. Ruslan D. Grebnev, deputy dean for international affairs at Lomonosov Moscow State University, at the BRICS Governance and Cultural Exchange Forum in Moscow on September 23rd. It explores the potential implications of this expansion on the trajectory of US geopolitics. Moreover, it offers valuable insights into the potential consequences of BRICS expansion, exploring the evolving landscape of global power dynamics and the potential for a multipolar world. The paper is republished with the author’s permission. *This text was provided to us for exclusive publication by the author and reflects their personal opinions.*

ОЦЕНКА СЦЕНАРИЕВ ВОЗМОЖНОГО РАЗВОРОТА ГЕОПОЛИТИКИ США В СТОРОНУ МНОГОПОЛЯРНОСТИ

(ASSESSMENT OF SCENARIOS FOR A POSSIBLE TURN IN US GEOPOLITICS TOWARDS MULTIPOLARITY)

Ruslan Grebnev – candidate of legal sciences, senior researcher at the faculty of global studies, Lomonosov Moscow State University,
e-mail: rusl4n.grebnev@yandex.ru

Abstract. The decision to expand BRICS, adopted at the Johannesburg Summit in 2023, makes it possible to determine the relevance of research on the stated topic. The commitment of the BRICS countries to the principles of equality, mutual benefit, and common interests, primarily of an economic nature, which contradict to the US foreign policy, allows us to model scenarios for a possible turn in US geopolitics towards multipolarity. For this modeling of possible scenarios, it seems necessary to solve research problems on scientific forecasting of the system of international relations future both in the medium and long term. To solve these problems, general research and special research methods were applied, including methods that together form systemic, actor-based, geopolitical, and geo-economic methodological approaches in the theory of global studies, including the method of global political forecasting. The concept of polycentricity or multipolarity can be considered as a global alternative to the US geopolitical project. The text of the article substantiates the existence of the disposition of the US geopolitical project and the trends in the formation of a polycentric system of international relations and examines the key differences between the two globalization political processes. The key difference between these processes, identified during the study, lies in their foundations – geopolitical and geo-economic approaches, respectively. The characteristic differences between the two globalization processes make it possible to identify their “points of contact” and, based on the methodology used, to predict their development. The most likely scenario for the development of the system of international relations in the medium term arises because of the current process of global polarization. The process of global polarization is associated, firstly, with the formation of a new balance of power, understood in the context of a geopolitical approach, and secondly, with the formation of an economic balance in the world. As a result of this process, two mutually determining balanced subsystems of global regulation can be formed, coexisting on different principles of the universality of political and social concepts of Western civilization or the pluralism of such concepts. The turn of US geopolitics towards multipolarity is considered in the context of a long-term perspective. Such a reversal seems possible with a combination of several factors identified and substantiated in this article.

Key words. Geopolitics, US foreign policy, geoeconomics, multipolarity, polycentricity, globalization of political processes, regionalization of political processes, global regulation of international relations

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