Just days after returning to the White House, U.S. President Donald Trump articulated his vision for the Middle East. Among the numerous orders, memos, and executive actions he signed shortly after his inauguration on January 20 were several focused on the Middle East. One of the most pressing issues capturing expert attention is Trump’s stance on Iran and the potential implications of his actions in this area. In a recent analysis published by ISPI, Dr. Emamian, co-founder of the Governance and Policy Think Tank (GPTT), explored how Iranians perceive a potential second term for Trump and what his administration’s approach to Iran might entail.

Trump’s Iran Ambivalent Policy from De Facto Entrenched Pessimism up to a Ray of Hope for Pragmatism

“In Iran, Trump’s second term is seen with pessimistic caution. Coming out of a fairly polarized electoral campaign consisting of Israel-first neocon warmongers alongside America-first isolationist peace dealers, the only widely accepted characteristic of him is yet unpredictability. Building upon a long history of US promise breaches and deal withdrawals, there is an entrenched feeling of pessimism and distrust in Iran. This scenario is supported by speculations about the second ‘maximum pressure’ campaign and, even worse, proposals for potential strikes on Iran, a long ‘Netanyahu-dreamed’ option in Jeffery Sacks’ wording. However, those do not seem new to Iranians, as they have long been facing ‘all options on the table’ everlasting threat. In response, besides domestic hedging policies, Iran has further enhanced its strategic cooperation with Russia and China, and there is a likelihood for a categorical shift in its deterrence strategy if needed. However, from an optimistic point of view, Trump’s anti-establishment stance and political pragmatism might open up a narrow window of opportunity for a historical move beyond the cliche Iran-hawk US ideological policies. Likewise, his NATO scepticizm would potentially push nuclear negotiations forward beyond the deadlock of EU obsession with the JCPOA Snapback mechanism. Last but not least, a prospect for peaceful and victorious US exit from West Asia, contrary to Biden’s scandalous escape from Afghanistan, is of proposals with some potentials for bilateral US-Iran cooperation.”